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NEWSWEEK POLL: The Stalemate Continues, Hillary Clinton has Battled Back to a Virtual Dead Heat With Barack ObamaOn The Major Issues, the Economy, Neither Candidate is Pulling AheadWEB EXCLUSIVEBy Tony Dokoupil
NEW YORK, March 8 /PRNewswire/ -- Sen. Hillary Clinton's primary victories in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island have revived her near-dead campaign and brought her into a statistical dead heat with Sen. Barack Obama among registered Democrats and Democratic leaners, according to a new national Newsweek Poll. The survey found that Clinton has erased the once-commanding lead that Obama held in most national polls following his 11 straight victories in February's primaries and caucuses. Obama is the favored nominee among 45 percent of Democrats, compared with 44 percent for Clinton, according to the poll, which was based on telephone interviews with 1,215 registered voters March 5-6. The poll also found that Democratic voters are ready to rally around the candidate they trust most to improve the economy, amid fears of a recession. But neither candidate has been able to lock up that issue, or many others, and the vast majority (69 percent) of Democratic voters now support the idea of a "dream ticket" -- leaving aside the crucial question of who runs on top. What's striking is that the fundamentals remain largely the same. Obama gets overwhelming support from blacks (80 percent to 10 percent), those under 40 (60 percent to 35 percent) and voters who have graduated from college (50 percent to 41 percent); Hillary wins the majority of whites (53 percent to 35 percent), voters over 60 (51 percent to 33 percent) and those who have a high- school education or less (48 percent to 38 percent). Along gender lines, Obama wins male voters by a 10-point margin (50 percent to 40 percent), while Clinton retains her lead with female voters (46 percent to 40 percent). Close to half (47 percent) of Democrats and Democratic leanders said that "the economy and jobs" would determine their ballot, but voters are split on which candidate they trust more on this topic (Obama, 43 percent; Clinton, 42 percent). Another quarter of voters cited health care, and 16 percent said the Iraq War. While the ability to bring about change still matters most to Democrats (30 percent of respondents), experience is gaining ground, with 21 percent citing it as the quality they covet most in a candidate. That's up from 15 percent in the last Newsweek Poll in February. As the candidate running hardest on the platform of experience, Clinton was seen by a wide margin (61 percent to 22 percent) as the candidate possessing that quality. Obama, meanwhile, retained his ironclad aura as an agent of change: he holds an 8-point margin (47 percent to 39 percent) over Clinton as the candidate that Democratic voters believe is most able to "bring about the changes this country needs." On the issue of preparedness for office, more Democratic voters believe Clinton's plan for mending the nation is better than Obama's (45 percent to 37 percent). But by a 41-point margin the same voters laud Obama as the candidate who can inspire the country. Worse for Clinton, 58 percent of Democrats seemed to value aura over argument when they said that the ability to inspire people is more important than having a winning plan of action. And the Illinois senator is seen by most Democrats as the candidate who can bring people together (53 percent to 32 percent for Clinton). Arizona Sen. John McCain, who clinched the Republican presidential nomination Tuesday, may have already benefited from the Democratic infighting. Many Democrats in the Newsweek Poll said that they would back McCain if their favorite candidate were not the nominee. Perhaps as a result, each candidate remains in a statistical tie with the former POW in a mock November match up. In a test election there Obama beat McCain 46 percent to 45 percent, and Clinton triumphed 48 percent to 46 percent. McCain faces obstacles on several fronts. He would be the oldest person to start a first term as president, and three in 10 survey respondents think he is too old for the job. McCain is also in danger of overplaying the endorsement he received this week from President George W. Bush. Campaigning side by side with the unpopular president could hurt McCain's chances; the president's approval rating hovers around 30 percent. Even among Republicans, almost a third (32 percent) of survey respondents said they disapprove of the job Bush is doing. Finally, McCain's support of the Iraq War may backfire. Although a slightly greater number of voters believe that things in Iraq are getting better (29 percent) rather than worse (25 percent) that could swing quickly if U.S. casualties flare. The rest of the poll results were mixed. They suggested that Clinton's ominous "3 a.m. phone call" ad benefited her campaign. Almost half (45 percent) of Democrats said they would trust Clinton to answer the red phone in the wee hours, while only a third felt that way about Obama. Similarly, on the issue of national security, almost half (47 percent) of the Democratic base said that they trust Clinton to protect the country; only a third feel the same about Obama. But it's not clear how much these sentiments will matter at the ballot box: just 4 percent of Democrats overall, and 4 percent of Clinton's supporters, name terrorism as their top issue. When all voters were asked which of the three candidates they would most trust to take a 3 a.m. call, the largest number pointed to McCain (45 percent), followed by Clinton (27 percent) and Obama (18 percent). Almost a fifth of Clinton's supporters say that they would trust McCain more to take the call. Looking ahead, 58 percent of Democratic voters, and 44 percent of Clinton backers, believe she will "go negative" if she wins her party's nomination. In contrast, only 24 percent of Obama supporters expect him to take the low road- which suggests that his backers could penalize him for playing dirty. The poll also shows that Clinton remains a divisive figure: a full 40 percent of registered voters hold an unfavorable opinion of her, compared with 35 percent for McCain and only 28 percent for Obama. On Clinton's contention that the media is harder on her, 42 percent of Democrats agree. Even among Obama supporters, a full third believe their candidate has had an easier time with journalists. While Clinton has regained support among national Democrats, Obama maintains the lead among pledged delegates to the party's convention, with 1,366 versus Clinton's 1,227, according to the tally by NBC News. Both fall short of the 2,025 delegates required to secure the nomination. But the national sentiment in the latest Newsweek Poll could reflect shifting attitudes of voters in upcoming primaries, including the next big prize, Pennsylvania. Should neither Clinton nor Obama secure enough delegates to win the nomination (a scenario that looks increasingly likely), 43 percent of Democrats said they would prefer that the candidate trailing in the delegate count concede the nomination, while 42 percent think super delegates should choose the nominee. Should the ball end up in the superdelegates' court, most respondents (42 percent) think they should choose the best-qualified nominee in their judgment, while 38 percent believe they should choose the person with the popular vote lead.
Story: http://www.newsweek.com/id/119953
Poll Numbers: http://www.newsweek.com/id/119957
Newsweek Poll
The Democratic Presidential Race
Princeton Survey Research Associates International
Final Topline Results
(3/7/08)
N = 1,215 registered voters screened from 1,364 adults, 18+
Margin of error: plus or minus 3.5
Interviewing dates: 3/5-6/08
N = 573 Registered Democrats and Democratic leaners (MOE: plus or minus 5)
Notes: Data are weighted so that sample demographics match Census Current Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race, region, and population density. Results based on smaller subgroups are subject to larger margins of sampling error. Sample size and margins of error for these subgroups are included in a separate methodology statement. An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%. READ INTRO TO Q1ab-Q2ab TO ALL RVs: Now I'm going to describe some different choices of candidates voters might have in this year's presidential election. As I read each one, please tell me how you would vote if the election were being held TODAY.
Questions 1a/b and 2a/b rotated.
1a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and
John McCain, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be
more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat; or
McCain, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Obama Total McCain Undec./Other
Current Total 46 45 9 =100
Rep/Lean Rep 10 86 4 =100
Dem/Lean Dem 77 14 9 =100
Clinton supporters 61 25 14 =100
Obama supporters 96 2 2 =100
Trends
6/20-21/07 51 41 8 =100
5/2-3/07 52 39 9 =100
2/28-3/1/07 45 43 12 =100
1/24-25/07 48 42 10 =100
1/17-18/07 46 44 10 =100
12/6-7/06 43 45 12 =100
2a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat; and
John McCain, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be
more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat;
or McCain, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total
Clinton McCain Undec./Other
Current Total 48 46 6 =100
Rep/Lean Rep 11 86 3 =100
Dem/Lean Dem 80 14 6 =100
Clinton supporters 94 6 * =100
Obama supporters 71 20 9 =100
Trends
6/20-21/07 50 45 5 =100
5/2-3/07 50 44 6 =100
2/28-3/1/07 47 46 7 =100
1/24-25/07 50 44 6 =100
1/17-18/07 48 47 5 =100
12/6-7/06 50 43 7 =100
Questions D2/D2a asked here (results posted at end of document).
3. Who would you MOST like to see nominated as the Democratic Party's
presidential candidate this year ... . Hillary Clinton (or) Barack
Obama? (Choices Rotated)
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
Obama Clinton Undec/Other
Current Total 45 44 11 =100
Democrat 44 44 12 =100
Independent/Other 46 42 12 =100
Male 50 40 10 =100
Female 41 46 13 =100
White 35 53 12 =100
Black 80 10 10 =100
18-39 60 35 5 =100
40-59 38 47 15 =100
60+ 33 51 16 =100
College grad. 50 41 9 =100
Some college 50 38 12 =100
No college 38 48 14 =100
Red states 37 50 13 =100
Blue states 51 39 10 =100
Trend (Total)
2/6-7/08 42 41 17 =100
4. Do you support ... (INSERT CHOICE FROM Q3) STRONGLY or only
moderately?
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
Strength of Support
Obama Clinton
Strong 70 68
Not Strong 30 32
100 100
5. Which ONE of the following is the MOST important reason that you
support ... (INSERT CHOICE FROM Q3)? (READ AND RANDOMIZE 1-6)
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS WHO CHOSE CLINTON OR
OBAMA
Total Clinton Obama 2/6-7/08
30 11 49 Can bring about needed change 30
21 41 1 Experience 15
14 13 15 Cares about people like you 13
14 15 13 Leadership ability 18
11 11 12 Positions on issues 14
5 3 7 Can win in November 6
2 3 1 Other/None of these (VOL.) 3
3 3 2 Don't know 1
100 100 100 100
6. In deciding which Democratic presidential candidate to support this
year, which ONE of the following issues is most important to
you...(READ AND ROTATE 1-5)
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
Total Clinton Obama 2/6-7/08
47 50 44 The economy and jobs 46
24 27 19 Health care 21
16 13 21 Iraq 17
6 3 10 The environment and global warming 8
4 4 4 Terrorism and national security 5
1 1 0 Other/None of these (VOL.) 1
2 2 2 Don't know 2
100 100 100 100
7. We'd like your overall opinion of some people in politics today. As I
read each name, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable
opinion of this person -- or if you had never heard of them before this
interview. What about ... (INSERT-READ AND RANDOMIZE) (Do you have a
favorable or unfavorable opinion of him/her?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Never Can't
Favorable Unfavorable heard of rate/DK
a. Hillary Clinton
Current Total 56 40 * 4 =100
Rep/Lean Rep 23 73 0 4 =100
Dem/Lean Dem 83 14 * 3 =100
Clinton supporters 99 1 * * =100
Obama supporters 72 26 0 2 =100
Trends (Total RVs)
7/2-3/07 55 38 1 6 =100
5/11-12/06 51 45 1 3 =100
b. Barack Obama
Current Total 61 28 1 10 =100
Rep/Lean Rep 40 47 1 12 =100
Dem/Lean Dem 79 14 1 6 =100
Clinton supporters 63 28 1 8 =100
Obama supporters 98 1 0 1 =100
Trends (Total RVs)
7/2-3/07 56 19 11 14 =100
5/11-12/06 34 10 46 10 =100
c. John McCain
Current Total 55 35 1 9 =100
d. George W. Bush
Current Total 33 61 1 5 =100
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his
job as president?
Approve Disapprove DK
Current Total 30 61 9 =100
Trends (1)
2/6-7/08 30 60 10 =100
8/1-2/07 29 63 8 =100
7/11-12/07 29 64 7 =100
7/2-3/07 26 65 9 =100
6/18-19/07 26 65 9 =100
5/2-3/07 28 64 8 =100
3/28-29/07 33 60 7 =100
3/14-15/07 30 60 10 =100
2/28-3/1/07 31 61 8 =100
1/24-25/07 30 64 6 =100
1/17-18/07 31 62 7 =100
12/6-7/06 32 60 8 =100
11/9-10/06 31 63 6 =100
11/2-3/06 35 56 9 =100
10/26-27/06 37 53 10 =100
10/19-20/06 35 57 8 =100
10/5-6/06 33 59 8 =100
8/24-25/06 36 56 8 =100
8/10-11/06 38 55 7 =100
5/11-12/06 35 59 6 =100
3/16-17/06 36 58 6 =100
11/10-11/05 36 58 6 =100
9/29-30/05 40 53 7 =100
9/8-9/05 38 55 7 =100
8/2-4/05 42 51 7 =100
3/17-18/05 45 48 7 =100
2/3-4/05 50 42 8 =100
12/2-3/04 49 44 7 =100
10/27-29/04 46 47 7 =100
10/14-15/04 47 46 7 =100
9/30-10/2/04 46 48 6 =100
9/9-10/04 48 44 8 =100
9/2-3/04 52 41 7 =100
7/29-30/04 45 49 6 =100
7/8-9/04 48 46 6 =100
5/13-14/04 42 52 6 =100
4/8-9/04 49 45 6 =100
3/18-19/04 48 44 8 =100
2/5-6/04 48 45 7 =100
1/22-23/04 50 44 6 =100
1/8-9/04 54 41 5 =100
12/18-19/03 54 38 8 =100
11/6-7/03 52 40 8 =100
8/21-22/03 53 36 11 =100
5/29-30/03 61 28 11 =100
(1) Full trendline from 1/04 to present; earlier trends selected. Approval
figures for 8/25-9/5/01 from Pew Research Center.
9. On the subject of Iraq ... All in all, do you think the situation in
Iraq is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 10/31-11/1/07 8/1-2/07(2)
29 Getting better 26 16
25 Getting worse 29 41
43 About the same 42 38
3 Don't know 3 5
100 100 100
(2) 8/1-2/07 trend results based on total adults.
10. Now I have a few more questions about the Democratic presidential
candidates. Regardless of which candidate you may support, please
tell me if you think each of the following statements BEST describes
Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. (First,) What about ... (READ AND
RANDOMIZE) (Does this statement best describe Hillary Clinton or
Barack Obama?)
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
Both
Clinton Obama equally Neither DK
a. Can bring about the changes
this country needs
Current Total 39 47 8 3 3 =100
Trend
2/6-7/08 38 44 11 2 5 =100
b. Has the right experience for
the job of president
Current Total 61 22 9 5 3 =100
Trend
2/6-7/08 62 21 9 4 4 =100
c. Can bring the country together
Current Total 32 53 9 3 3 =100
Trend
2/6-7/08 34 50 8 3 5 =100
d. Inspires and excites people
Current Total 23 64 10 1 2 =100
Trend
2/6-7/08 25 63 8 2 2 =100
e. Is most likely to defeat John
McCain in November (3)
Current Total 38 44 9 2 7 =100
Trend
2/6-7/08 43 38 8 1 10 =100
f. Has the better plan for solving
our country's problems
Current Total 45 37 8 3 7 =100
(3) Trend wording read, "Is most likely to win in November."
11. Which ONE of the following do you think is the more important quality
for the next president to have ... ? (READ AND ROTATE 1-2)
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
Total Clinton Obama
58 41 74 Ability to inspire and bring people together to
solve the country's problems (or)
39 56 24 Having a specific plan for solving our country's
problems (or)
3 3 2 Don't know
100 100 100
12. Regardless of which candidate you may support, please tell me if you
would trust Hillary Clinton more or Barack Obama more to do each of
the following ... (First,) Which would you trust more ... (READ AND
RANDOMIZE) (Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama)?
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
(Vol.) (Vol.)
Clinton Obama Both Neither DK
a. To improve the economy and job
situation
Current Total 42 43 9 2 4 =100
b. To deal with the situation in
Iraq
Current Total 45 40 9 2 4 =100
c. To protect the country from
terrorism
Current Total 47 33 13 3 4 =100
d. To make health care more
affordable and accessible
Current Total 51 35 8 3 3 =100
e. To answer an urgent 3AM phone
call in the White
House about a national security
crisis
Current Total 45 33 15 3 4 =100
13. Putting aside the issue of which would be the presidential and vice
presidential candidate, in general, would you personally like to see
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton run together on the national
Democratic ticket this fall, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
Total Clinton Obama
69 72 67 Yes, would
27 24 30 No, would not
4 4 3 Don't know
100 100 100
14. If nominated, which Democratic presidential candidate - Hillary
Clinton or Barack Obama - do you think would be more likely to engage
in mudslinging and negative campaigning in the fall campaign against
Republican John McCain?
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
Total Clinton Obama
58 44 74 Hillary Clinton
18 24 17 Barack Obama
9 12 2 Both equally (VOL.)
5 7 3 Neither (VOL.)
10 13 4 Don't know
100 100 100
15. Suppose that after all the votes in the Democratic primaries and
caucuses have been counted, neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama
has enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination. Which of the
following would you most prefer ... (READ AND ROTATE OPTIONS 1-2)
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
Total Clinton Obama
43 36 51 That the candidate trailing in delegates drop out of
the race and concede the nomination to their opponent
(or)
42 50 39 That the Democratic elected officials and party
leaders who are the "super delegates"
decide which candidate becomes the party's nominee
(or)
15 14 10 Don't know
100 100 100
16. Suppose that, in the end, the Democratic super delegates decide
whether Clinton or Obama is the party's presidential nominee. Which
the following ways would you MOST like to see them choose between the
candidates? Should the super delegates ... (READ)
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
Total Clinton Obama
38 34 41 Choose the candidate who won the biggest share of the
POPULAR VOTE in primaries
and caucuses across the country, or
14 6 23 Choose the candidate who won the most DELEGATES in
the primaries and caucuses, or
42 55 31 Choose the candidate who is BEST QUALIFIED to be the
nominee in their judgment?
6 5 5 Don't know
100 100 100
17. What if Barack Obama wins the most popular vote and the most delegates
from the primaries and caucuses but Hillary Clinton is selected as the
nominee by the super delegates? Do you think the Democratic Party
leadership would be seen as racially biased in denying the nomination
to an African-American candidate, or don't you think it would be seen
this way?
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
Total Clinton Obama Whites Blacks
30 25 37 26 47 Yes, would be seen as racially biased
59 65 53 64 42 No, would not
11 10 10 10 11 Don't know
100 100 100 100 100
18. Now thinking about the way the news media has covered the Democratic
presidential race this year, in general, do you think media coverage
has been ... (READ)
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
Total Clinton Obama
42 56 33 More critical of Hillary Clinton,
10 6 16 More critical of Barack Obama, or
43 34 46 Has NOT been more critical of one candidate than
another?
5 4 5 Don't know
100 100 100
19. Which one of the following would you trust most to answer an urgent
3AM phone call in the White House about a national security crisis?
(READ AND RANDOMIZE)
Based on Registered Voters
Clinton Rep/ Dem/
Total Obama Ln Rep Ln Dem
45 18 13 81 17 John McCain
27 68 20 9 42 Hillary Clinton
18 4 62 4 31 Barack Obama
10 10 5 6 10 Don't know
100 100 100 100 100
20. At age 71, do you think John McCain is too old to serve effectively as
president, or not?
Based on Registered Voters
Current 1/25-26/96(4)
30 37 Yes, too old
67 60 No, not too old
3 3 Don't know
100 100
D2. Regardless of how you might have voted in recent elections, in
politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or
Independent?
D2a. As of TODAY do you LEAN more toward the Republican Party or the
Democratic Party?
(4) Trend asked about Bob Dole.
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Dem/
Total Ln Dem
27 0 Republican
38 75 Democrat
32 22 Independent
2 2 No party/Not interested in politics (VOL.)
* * Other party (VOL.)
1 1 Don't know
100 100
40 Total Republican/Lean Republican
50 Total Democrat/Lean Democratic
END OF INTERVIEW. THANK RESPONDENT: That completes the interview. Thank you very much for your cooperation. Website: http://www.newsweek.msnbc.com/Website: http://www.newsweek.com/id/119953/ |
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