Barack Obama Narrows the Gap and Closes in on Hillary Clinton

ROCHESTER, N.Y., June 15 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- While 13 points separated Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama just one month ago in the race for the Democratic nomination for President, the gap between them has narrowed considerably to just four points. Just over one-third (36%) of adults who would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus would vote for Senator Clinton, while 32 percent would vote for Senator Obama. Last month, 40 percent would vote for Senator Clinton and 27 percent said they would vote for Senator Obama.

Of the next closest potential candidates, only one is an actual candidate. However, both are very far behind the two front-runners. Al Gore is next in preference as 14 percent would vote for him, followed by 12 percent who would vote for John Edwards. The other six candidates and potential candidates are all even further behind with only Governor Bill Richardson above one percent - - he is at three percent. The Democratic primary race is clearly a two person race at this point in time.

These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 3,304 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive(R) between June 1 and 12, 2007. This survey included 1,196 adults who expect to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus and like all polls conducted well before an election, it should not be read as a prediction. Rather, it is a snap shot of the presidential "horse race," at a very early stage in the race. A previous column(1) reviewed the data on the Republican candidates.

Before being asked to pick their first choice in the primary elections, the adults surveyed were also shown a list of all the main candidates in both parties and some other well-known Republicans and Democrats, and asked which of them they would consider voting for. They could name as many people, in both parties, as they wished.

Among Democrats, more people say they would consider voting for Hillary Clinton (70%) than for Barack Obama (57%). However, Obama edges Clinton among Independents (by 38% to 33%). Among the next tier of candidates, half of Democrats (49%) would consider Al Gore, while 43 percent of Democrats would consider John Edwards.

Overall Democratic Leaders Continue to be Preferred over Republicans

When the replies of all adults are taken together, 67 percent would consider voting for one of the Democrats and 59 percent would consider voting for one of the Republican leaders. While almost all Democrats (96%) and Republicans (92%) would consider one of the leaders from their own party, the Independents are pretty equally divided. Two thirds (68%) of Independents would consider one of the Democratic leaders while 60 percent would consider one of the Republican leaders.

TABLE 1

DEMOCRATIC LEADERS ADULTS "WOULD CONSIDER VOTING FOR" FOR PRESIDENT

"Although the U.S. presidential election is not until November, 2008, there are a number of people who may run for president. If you were to vote and had

to select from the following candidates, for which of the following people
                       would you consider voting?"

  Base: All adults
                     Feb          Mar         Apr         May         June
                      %            %            %           %           %
  Hillary Clinton    45           41           37          42          39
  Barack Obama       37           41           39          41          37
  Al Gore            26           29           29          29          28
  John Edwards       28           29           31          31          26
  John Kerry         12           14           14          15          13
  Joe Lieberman      12           10            9          11           9
  Bill Richardson     8            8            9           9           9
  Joe Biden           7            7            7           8           7
  Howard Dean         8            8            7           9           7
  Wesley Clark        8            9            8           7           5
  Russ Feingold     N/A          N/A            5           4           4
  Dennis Kucinich     4            5            4           5           4
  Christopher Dodd    4            3            3           3           3
  Mike Gravel         1            2            1           2           2
  Al Sharpton       N/A          N/A            3           3           2



  Base: All adults
                              Republican      Democrat     Independent
                                  %               %             %
  Hillary Clinton                 8              70            33
  Barack Obama                   12              57            38
  Al Gore                         6              49            26
  John Edwards                    8              43            25
  John Kerry                      2              25            11
  Joe Lieberman                   9              10             9
  Bill Richardson                 3              13             9
  Joe Biden                       3              11             6
  Howard Dean                     1              11             7
  Wesley Clark                    2               8             4
  Russ Feingold                   1               6             4
  Dennis Kucinich                 *               5             5
  Christopher Dodd                1               5             3
  Mike Gravel                     1               3             1
  Al Sharpton                     *               4             2

  Note: Multiple-response question
  *Less than 0.5% "-" No response
  N/A -- Not applicable



                                 TABLE 2
               DEMOCRATIC VOTERS FIRST CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT

"There are many different people who are, or who may become, candidates for

president in the Democratic primaries starting in January, 2008. Based all that you know or have heard up to now about the people listed below, for which

               one person would you be most likely to vote?

  Base: Those who would vote in Democratic primary or caucus
                                April           May           June
                                  %               %             %
  Hillary Clinton                37              40            36
  Barack Obama                   32              27            32
  Al Gore                        13              13            14
  John Edwards                   14              12            12
  Bill Richardson                 3               3             3
  Joe Biden                       1               2             1
  Dennis Kucinich                 1               1             1
  Wesley Clark                    *               1             1
  Christopher Dodd                *               *             *
  Mike Gravel                     -               *             *

  Note: Percentages do not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding
  *Less than 0.5% "-" No response



                                 TABLE 3
  SUMMARY: THOSE WHO WOULD CONSIDER VOTING FOR ANY OF THE LISTED LEADERS
                              AND CANDIDATES

  Base: All adults
                                    Feb      Mar      Apr      May      June
                                     %        %        %        %         %
  Would consider one of
   the listed Democratic leaders    71       69       68       71        67
  Would consider one of
   the Republican leaders           58       59       59       58        59



  Base: All adults
                                    Republican    Democrat    Independent
                                        %            %             %
  Would consider one of
   the listed Democratic leaders       32           96            68
  Would consider one of
   the Republican leaders              92           33            60


  Methodology

This Harris Poll(R) was conducted online within the United States between June 1 and 12, 2007 among 3,304 adults, 1,196 of whom said they would vote in a Democratic primary or caucus (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

  J 30279A (June)
  Q492, 2036

  (1) The Harris Poll(R) #55, Fred Thompson Solidly in Second Place in
      Republican Preference For President, June 14, 2007
  The Harris Poll(R) #56, June 15, 2007
  By Regina Corso, Director, The Harris Poll(R), Harris Interactive.

  About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is the 12th largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world. The company provides innovative research, insights and strategic advice to help its clients make more confident decisions which lead to measurable and enduring improvements in performance. Harris Interactive is widely known for The Harris Poll, one of the longest running, independent opinion polls and for pioneering online market research methods. The company has built what it believes to be the world's largest panel of survey respondents, the Harris Poll Online. Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States, Europe and Asia offices, its wholly-owned subsidiaries Novatris in France and MediaTransfer AG in Germany, and through a global network of independent market research firms. More information about Harris Interactive may be obtained at http://www.harrisinteractive.com/. To become a member of the Harris Poll Online and be invited to participate in online surveys, register at http://www.harrispollonline.com/.

  Press Contact:
  Tracey McNerney
  585-214-7756
  tmcnerney@harrisinteractive.com
  Harris Interactive Inc. 06/07