Preliminary CIRCLE Projection: Youth Voter Turnout Up

About 22-24 Million Young Americans Go to the Polls: Up by at Least 2.2 Million from 2004

Young voters favor Obama over McCain 66% to 32%; 18% of all voters were young

MEDFORD, Mass. and SOMERVILLE, Mass., Nov. 5 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Preliminary CIRCLE projections show the turnout for young Americans (ages 18-29) is higher than in 2004, a year of significant increase, and is much higher than it was in 2000 and 1996.

CIRCLE estimates youth voting after elections based on several variables, including the total number of ballots counted. Currently, the actual turnout estimate is unclear because of precincts that have not reported and the significant number of Americans who voted absentee; these votes will not be fully counted for some time, affecting the total number of ballots counted. At 12 pm on Nov 5th, about 120 million votes had been counted, but many states are far from reporting 100% of precincts. CIRCLE's preliminary estimates are based on a range of possible vote counts, from 120 million to 133 million.

An estimated 21.6 million-23.9 million young Americans voted in Tuesday's presidential election, an increase of at least 2.2 million compared with 2004, according to national exit polls, demographic data, and projections of total numbers of votes cast. CIRCLE projects the youth voter turnout will be between 49.3% and 54.5%, an increase of 1 to 6 percentage points over CIRCLE's estimate based on the 2004 exit polls. The 2004 election was a strong one for youth turnout, reversing a long history of decline. If we compare 2008 with 2000, the increase in youth turnout is between 8 and 13 percentage points. CIRCLE will replace projections with actual vote counts once most precincts have reported, including absentee ballots. Depending on the final vote tally, this year's youth turnout could be the second highest since 1972 (55.4%).

"From a nonpartisan perspective, it is heartening to see young people so motivated and engaged in a national election," said CIRCLE director Peter Levine. "Young Americans are also involved in community service at record rates. We must build on the momentum from this election to find ways to keep them civically engaged. It is also critical that those who did not vote for Barack Obama, or who did not vote at all, will feel included in politics, government and community affairs."

Young voters favored the winner of this election by more than a two-to-one margin, forming a major part of the winning coalition. Overall, voters chose Obama over McCain by a much narrower margin of about 52% to 46%. This gap in presidential choice by age is unprecedented. The average gap from 1976 through 2004 was only 1.8 percentage points, as young voters basically supported the same candidate as older voters in most elections.

"Turnout" means the percentage of eligible citizens who voted, and youth voter turnout is the percentage of eligible 18-29 year olds who voted. CIRCLE's final estimate will be based on the National Exit Polls conducted by Edison/Mitofsky, the number of ballots cast in the United States (aggregated from data provided by local election officials), and current Census data on the number of young citizens in the United States. CIRCLE has used precisely the same method to estimate youth turnout after previous elections since 1996. Using this consistent method, we estimate the following trend:

    Year      Youth Voter         Percentage point     Number of young
              Turnout             change since         people who voted
              Estimated by        previous election    (based on
              CIRCLE (using                            national exit
              exit polls)                              polls and
                                                       day-after counts
                                                       of ballots)

    1996      37%                 --                   14.5 million
    2000      41%                 +4                   16.2 million
    2004      48%                 +7                   19.4 million
    2008      To be announced     To be announced      To be announced
              later               later                later

There is no official count of voters by age. Therefore, any statistic on youth voter turnout is an estimate based on survey data. Like any survey, the National Exit Polls use methods that may introduce sampling bias. However, our estimates of youth turnout from the National Exit Polls (shown above) have produced a trend that closely tracks the trend in the Census Current Population Survey (CPS), which is the other reliable source for estimating youth turnout. CPS voting data for 2008 will not be available until spring 2009. Until then, our method produces the only reliable estimate of youth turnout.

CIRCLE (The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement) conducts and promotes research on the civic and political engagement of Americans between the ages of 15 and 25. A part of the Jonathan M. Tisch College of Citizenship and Public Service at Tufts University, CIRCLE has received funding from The Pew Charitable Trusts, Carnegie Corporation of New York and several other foundations.

The Jonathan M. Tisch College of Citizenship and Public Service is a national leader whose model and research are setting the standard for higher education's role in civic engagement education. Serving every school of Tufts University, Tisch College creates an enduring culture that prepares students to be lifelong active citizens.

Tufts University, located on three Massachusetts campuses in Boston, Medford/Somerville and Grafton, and in Talloires, France, is recognized as one of the premier research universities in the United States. Tufts enjoys a global reputation for academic excellence and for the preparation of students as leaders in a wide range of professions. A growing number of innovative teaching and research initiatives span all Tufts campuses, and collaboration among the faculty and students in the undergraduate, graduate, and professional programs across the University's schools is widely encouraged.