Hillary Clinton Widens Her Lead Over Barack Obama

ROCHESTER, N.Y., May 16 /PRNewswire/ -- A month ago U.S. Senator Barack Obama was surging and it seemed possible that he would soon overtake Senator Hillary Clinton as the Democrats first choice for President in the 2008 elections. In April, he trailed Clinton by only 5 percentage points with 32 percent, compared to her 37 percent. However, a new Harris Poll finds Senator Clinton has since strengthened her position and that Senator Obama has slipped. She now leads Obama by fully 13 points -- 40 percent to 27 percent.

These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,523 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive(R) between May 3 and 10, 2007. This survey included 1,022 adults who expect to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus and like all polls conducted well before an election, it should not be read as a prediction. Rather, it is a snap shot of the presidential "horse race", at a very early stage in the race. A previous column(1) reviewed the data on the Republican candidates.

Before being asked to pick their first choice in the primary elections, the adults surveyed were shown a list of all the main candidates in both parties and some other well know Republicans and Democrats, and asked which of them they would consider voting for. They could name as many people, in both parties, as they wished.

Among Democrats, more people say they would consider voting for Hillary Clinton (74%) than for Barack Obama (62%). However, Obama leads Clinton among Independents (by 39% to 34%) and among Republicans (by 14% to 7%).

The only other Democrats who attract more than a very small number of supporters are former Vice President Al Gore with 13 percent and former U.S. Senator John Edwards with 12 percent. They are, therefore, still a long way behind Clinton and Obama and show no signs of moving up.

Overall Democratic leaders continue to be preferred over Republicans

When the replies of all adults are taken together, 71 percent would consider voting for one of the Democrats and 58 percent would consider voting for one of the Republican leaders. This 71 percent to 58 percent Democratic lead is identical to their lead in February and slightly larger than their lead in March and April.

  (1) The Harris Poll(R) #40, Fred Thompson Now Tied For Second Place in
      Republican Preference For President, May 15, 2007


                                 TABLE 1
   DEMOCRATIC LEADERS ADULTS "WOULD CONSIDER VOTING FOR" FOR PRESIDENT

"Although the U.S. presidential election is not until November, 2008, there are a number of people who may run for president. If you were to vote and had to select from the following candidates, for which of the following people would you consider voting?"

  Base: All adults

                           Total 2007           Party ID (May, 2007)
                     Feb   Mar  Apr  May  Republican  Democrat  Independent
                      %     %    %    %        %        %           %

  Hillary Clinton    45    41   37   42        7        74         34
  Barack Obama       37    41   39   41       14        62         39
  John Edwards       28    29   31   31       11        49         26
  Al Gore            26    29   29   29        5        50         24
  John Kerry         12    14   14   15        2        25         12
  Joe Lieberman      12    10    9   11       15         8         11
  Howard Dean         8     8    7    9        1        14          9
  Bill Richardson     8     8    9    9        3        16          6
  Joe Biden           7     7    7    8        2        13          7
  Wesley Clark        8     9    8    7        1        12          7
  Dennis Kucinich     4     5    4    5        *         8          4
  Russ Feingold     N/A   N/A    5    4        *         7          3
  Christopher Dodd    4     3    3    3        *         6          2
  Al Sharpton       N/A   N/A    3    3        *         6          1
  Mike Gravel         1     2    1    2        *         4          2

  Note: Multiple-response question
  *Less than 0.5% "-"No response
  N/A- Not applicable


                                 TABLE 2
               DEMOCRATIC VOTERS FIRST CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT

"There are many different people who are, or who may become, candidates for president in the Democratic primaries starting in January, 2008. Based on all that you know or have heard up to now about the people listed below, for which one person would you be most likely to vote?

  Base: Those who would vote in Democratic primary or caucus

                              April       May
                                %          %

  Hillary Clinton              37         40
  Barack Obama                 32         27
  Al Gore                      13         13
  John Edwards                 14         12
  Bill Richardson               3          3
  Joe Biden                     1          2
  Dennis Kucinich               1          1
  Wesley Clark                  *          1
  Christopher Dodd              *          *
  Mike Gravel                   -          *

  Note: Percentages do not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding
  *Less than 0.5%
  -Not Applicable


                                 TABLE 3
  SUMMARY: THOSE WHO WOULD CONSIDER VOTING FOR ANY OF THE LISTED LEADERS
                              AND CANDIDATES
  Base: All adults

                           Total 2007                Party ID (May)

                       Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Republican  Democrat Independent
                        %    %    %    %        %        %         %
  Would consider
   one of the listed
   Democratic leaders   71  69   68   71       38       96        70
  Would consider one
   of the Republican
   leaders              58  59   59   58       92       35        60


  Methodology

This Harris Poll(R) was conducted online within the United States between May 3 and 10, 2007 among 2,523 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

  J 30279A (May)
  Q492, 2036

  The Harris Poll(R) #41, May 16, 2007
  By Humphrey Taylor, chairman of The Harris Poll(R), Harris Interactive.

  About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is the 12th largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world. The company provides innovative research, insights and strategic advice to help its clients make more confident decisions which lead to measurable and enduring improvements in performance. Harris Interactive is widely known for The Harris Poll, one of the longest running, independent opinion polls and for pioneering online market research methods. The company has built what it believes to be the world's largest panel of survey respondents, the Harris Poll Online. Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States, Europe and Asia offices, its wholly-owned subsidiaries Novatris in France and MediaTransfer AG in Germany, and through a global network of independent market research firms. More information about Harris Interactive may be obtained at http://www.harrisinteractive.com.to/ become a member of the Harris Poll Online and be invited to participate in online surveys, register at http://www.harrispollonline.com/.

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  Tracey McNerney
  Harris Interactive
  585-214-7756