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President Bush's Job Rating Falls Again, to 34 Percent PositiveCabinet members, congressional leaders and both parties in Congress also down five or more points since August
ROCHESTER, N.Y., Nov. 17 /PRNewswire/ -- The latest Harris Poll finds that President Bush's positive job rating has continued to fall, touching another new low for his presidency at 34 percent. This compares with his positive ratings of fully 88 percent after 9/11, 65 percent in November 2002, 50 percent at the end of 2003, 50 percent in November 2004, 45 percent in June of this year, and 40 percent in August. President Bush's positive ratings, now, compare unfavorably with those of three of the last four two-term presidents at a comparable time in their fifth year in office. In November (or the nearest month to it when the Harris Poll measured it) of their fifth year, their positive ratings, Presidents Johnson (67%), Reagan (66%) and Clinton (58%) all enjoyed the support of substantial majorities. President Nixon however (29%) was significantly less popular than President Bush is now. These are results from the latest Harris Poll conducted by telephone within the United States between November 8 and 13, 2005 among a nationwide cross section of 1,011 adults (aged 18 and over). This negative trend is reflected by similar downward trends in the ratings of other Republican leaders and members of the Cabinet: -- Vice President Dick Cheney's positive rating has fallen five points
since August from 35 percent to 30 percent.
-- Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice - still by far the most popular
Cabinet member - has seen her positive rating fall five points since
August, from 57 percent to 52 percent.
-- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's positive rating has fallen from
40 percent in August to 34 percent now.
-- House Speaker Dennis Hastert's positive rating is down four points
since August, from 26 percent to 22 percent
-- Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist's positive rating is down from 28
percent to 23 percent which suggests he will not be a strong
presidential candidate in 2008.
-- The positive rating of the Republicans in Congress is down from 32
percent to 27 percent since August.
Other questions in this survey do not suggest the political issues people care most about have changed much. The top issues in earlier surveys this year are still the top issues, although the actual numbers have changed. "The war" (34%), the economy (13%), Iraq (13%), healthcare (11%) and education (10%) continue to head the list of unprompted answers given to a question about "the most important issues for the government to address". However, the biggest fall of all since August is in the number of adults who think the country is moving in the right direction, which has dropped ten points from 37 percent to 27 percent. Democrats Fail to Benefit from Republican Problems One surprising finding is that the Democrats have not been able to capitalize on the decline of the president and other Republican leaders' ratings. The positive rating of the Democrats in Congress has continued to fall and currently stands at only 25 percent, two points lower than the also declining rating for Republicans in Congress. TABLE 1
POSITIVE RATINGS: TRENDS SINCE 9/11/01: SUMMARY
Base: All Adults
Soon
After
POSITIVE RATINGS 9/11 Feb. April Aug. Dec.
2003 2003 2003 2003
President George W. Bush % 88 52 70 57 50
Vice President Dick Cheney % 69 45 55 42 42
Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice % ** ** ** ** **
Secretary of Defense
Donald Rumsfeld % 78 56 71 55 57
POSITIVE RATINGS Feb. April June Oct. Nov.
2004 2004 2004 2004 2004
President George W. Bush % 51 48 50 51 50
Vice President Dick Cheney % 41 36 42 47 48
Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice % ** ** ** ** **
Secretary of Defense
Donald Rumsfeld % 50 45 47 46 47
POSITIVE RATINGS Feb. April June Aug. Nov.
2005 2005 2005 2005 2005
President George W. Bush % 48 44 45 40 34
Vice President Dick Cheney % 45 37 38 35 30
Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice % 52 54 52 57 52
Secretary of Defense
Donald Rumsfeld % 42 42 42 40 34
TABLE 2
JOB RATINGS FOR TWO-TERM PRESIDENTS
Base: All Adults
TREND Positive* Negative**
Bush Nov 2005 % 34 65
Clinton Nov 1997 % 58 41
Reagan Nov 1985 % 66 33
Nixon July 1974 % 29 68
Johnson Sept 1965 % 67 33
*Positive = excellent or pretty good.
**Negative = only fair or poor.
TABLE 3
PRESIDENT BUSH'S OVERALL JOB RATING
(Not Sure's Excluded)
"How would you rate the job President George W. Bush is doing as president - excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?"
Base: All Adults
TREND Positive* Negative**
2005 November % 34 65
August % 40 58
June % 45 55
April % 44 56
February % 48 51
2004 November % 50 49
October % 51 49
September % 45 54
August % 48 51
June % 50 49
April % 48 51
February % 51 48
2003 December % 50 49
October % 59 40
August % 57 41
June % 61 36
April % 70 29
February % 52 46
2002 December % 64 35
November % 65 33
October % 64 35
September % 68 30
August % 63 37
July % 62 37
June % 70 28
May % 74 25
April % 75 23
March % 77 22
February % 79 20
January % 79 19
2001 December % 82 17
November % 86 12
October % 88 11
August % 52 43
July % 56 39
June % 50 46
May % 59 35
March % 49 38
February % 56 26
*Positive = excellent or pretty good.
**Negative = only fair or poor.
TABLE 4
RATINGS OF VICE PRESIDENT CHENEY
(Not Sure's Excluded)
"And how would you rate the job Vice President Cheney is doing - excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"
Base: All Adults
TREND Positive* Negative**
2005 November % 30 65
August % 35 60
June % 38 56
April % 37 60
February % 45 52
2004 November % 48 50
October % 47 51
September % 40 54
August % 40 54
June % 42 49
April % 36 52
February % 41 48
2003 December % 42 47
October % 42 44
August % 42 45
June % 49 40
April % 55 36
February % 45 44
2002 December % 50 37
November % 52 39
October % 54 37
September % 52 37
August % 45 43
July % 46 41
June % 55 34
May % 55 33
April % 55 31
March % 59 29
February % 57 31
January % 55 31
2001 October % 69 20
July % 39 52
*Positive = excellent or pretty good.
**Negative = only fair or poor.
TABLE 5
RATINGS OF SECRETARY OF STATE CONDOLEEZZA RICE
(Not Sure's Excluded) "And how would you rate the job Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is doing - excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"
Base: All Adults
TREND Positive* Negative**
2005 November % 52 41
August % 57 37
June % 52 41
April % 54 39
February % 52 40
*Positive = excellent or pretty good.
**Negative = only fair or poor.
TABLE 6
RATINGS OF SECRETARY OF DEFENSE DONALD RUMSFELD
(Not Sure's Excluded) "And how would you rate the job Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is doing - excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"
Base: All Adults
TREND Positive* Negative**
2005 November % 34 59
August % 40 58
June % 42 53
April % 42 56
February % 42 56
2004 November % 47 50
October % 46 50
September % 43 50
August % 45 49
June % 47 47
April % 45 47
February % 50 43
2003 December % 57 38
October % 47 44
August % 55 36
June % 60 32
April % 71 22
February % 56 35
2002 December % 59 30
November % 59 30
October % 60 30
September % 61 27
August % 60 29
July % 56 33
June % 65 24
May % 67 22
April % 70 18
March % 71 18
February % 70 17
January % 77 16
2001 December % 75 14
October % 78 12
*Positive = excellent or pretty good.
**Negative = only fair or poor.
TABLE 7
RATINGS OF HOUSE SPEAKER DENNIS HASTERT
(Not Sure's Excluded)
"And how would you rate the job House Speaker Dennis Hastert is doing -
excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"
Base: All Adults
TREND Positive* Negative**
2005 November % 22 50
August % 26 46
June % 28 44
April % 30 50
2004 September % 29 33
August % 29 33
June % 29 32
April % 25 35
February % 26 35
2003 December % 24 30
October % 29 35
August % 29 36
June % 34 31
April % 41 29
February % 33 34
2002 December % 26 33
November % 30 31
October % 30 29
September % 35 29
August % 29 35
July % 28 36
June % 34 31
May % 33 25
April % 32 26
March % 33 25
February % 37 25
January % 40 24
2001 October (high) % 52 16
August (low) % 27 29
2000 August (high) % 29 28
July (low) % 23 31
1999 October (low) % 25 34
April (high) % 36 39
*Positive = excellent or pretty good.
**Negative = only fair or poor.
TABLE 8
RATINGS OF SENATE MAJORITY LEADER BILL FRIST
(Not Sure's Excluded)
"And how would you rate the job Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is doing - excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"
Base: All Adults
TREND Positive* Negative**
2005 November % 23 52
August % 28 49
June % 28 47
April % 32 51
2004 September % 27 40
August % 28 38
June % 30 36
April % 26 36
February % 31 36
2003 December % 27 38
October % 29 34
August % 32 35
June % 38 32
April % 39 29
February % 37 30
*Positive = excellent or pretty good.
**Negative = only fair or poor
TABLE 9
RATINGS OF REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS
(Not Sure's Excluded) "And how would you rate the job Republicans in Congress are doing - excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"
Base: All Adults
TREND Positive* Negative**
2005 November % 27 69
August % 32 64
June % 37 58
April % 36 61
2004 September % 38 56
August % 40 54
June % 39 53
April % 35 55
February % 40 52
2003 December % 37 51
October % 40 50
August % 41 51
June % 45 47
April % 52 41
February % 43 49
2002 December % 47 47
November % 47 45
October % 46 45
September % 47 42
August % 41 49
July % 39 52
June % 46 45
May % 48 44
April % 49 39
March % 50 41
February % 50 40
January % 58 34
2001 October (high) % 67 24
August (low) % 37 52
2000 May (low) % 33 60
February (high) % 38 55
1999 October (low) % 32 58
September (high) % 39 55
1998 June (low) % 31 62
February (high) % 44 53
1997 June (low) % 31 67
February (high) % 38 58
1996 May (low) % 29 69
January (high) % 33 66
1995 November (low) % 35 63
April (high) % 42 56
*Positive = excellent or pretty good.
**Negative = only fair or poor.
TABLE 10
RATINGS OF DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS
(Not Sure's Excluded)
"And how would you rate the job Democrats in Congress are doing - excellent, pretty good, only fair or poor?"
Base: All Adults
TREND Positive* Negative**
2005 November % 25 70
August % 31 65
June % 33 61
April % 34 64
2004 September % 34 60
August % 35 58
June % 31 59
April % 32 57
February % 33 58
2003 December % 28 61
October % 34 56
August % 30 60
June % 41 51
April % 39 52
February % 38 54
2002 December % 36 55
November % 40 52
October % 40 52
September % 42 49
August % 38 54
July % 41 49
June % 45 46
May % 45 45
April % 47 42
March % 48 43
February % 49 41
January % 52 40
2001 October (high) % 68 24
May (low) % 40 51
2000 September (high) % 48 44
June (low) % 38 52
1999 October (low) % 42 50
January (high) % 50 47
1998 September (high) % 49 47
June (low) % 41 53
1997 June (low) % 36 60
February (high) % 43 54
1996 May (high) % 36 62
January (low) % 31 68
1995 November (high) % 34 64
July (low) % 30 66
1994 December % 28 70
*Positive = excellent or pretty good.
**Negative = only fair or poor.
TABLE 11
RIGHT DIRECTION OR WRONG TRACK
(No Opinion's, Not Sure's and Decline to Answer's Excluded)
"Generally speaking, would you say things in the country are going in the right direction or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?" Base: All Adults
TREND Right Direction Wrong Track
2005 November % 27 68
August % 37 59
June % 38 55
January % 46 48
2004 September % 38 57
June % 35 59
2003 December % 35 57
June % 44 51
2002 December % 36 57
June % 46 48
2001 December % 65 32
June % 43 52
January % 46 39
2000 October % 50 41
June % 40 51
January % 50 38
1999 June % 37 55
March % 47 45
1998 December % 43 51
June % 48 44
1997 December % 39 56
April % 36 55
1996 December % 38 50
June % 29 64
1995 December % 26 62
June % 24 65
1994 December % 29 63
June % 28 65
TABLE 12
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES FOR GOVERNMENT TO ADDRESS
(Spontaneous, Unprompted Replies)
"What do you think are the two most important issues for the government to
address?"
Base: All Adults
'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01
Feb Feb April May Jan Feb Aug Dec
% % % % % % % %
(The) war X X X X X X X 12
The economy (non-specific) 12 7 14 8 9 7 5 32
Iraq / (Saddam Hussein) * * * * * 1 - -
Healthcare (not Medicare) 45 25 16 10 11 12 15 5
Education 6 10 14 15 14 21 25 12
Taxes 6 12 11 14 16 12 13 6
Gas and oil prices X X X X X X X X
Federal budget surplus/deficit 8 22 22 20 12 5 4 1
Terrorism X X X X X X X 22
Immigration * 2 2 2 1 * 1 1
(Programs for) the poor/ poverty 8 10 2 3 2 2 3 1
Social security x x X 6 6 24 16 3
Employment/jobs 14 10 9 5 3 4 4 7
Disaster relief/Hurricane Relief x x x x x x x x
Energy X X X X X X X X
National security X X X X X 2 2 6
Domestic/social issues (non-
specific) 4 4 4 2 3 2 2 2
Medicare X X 3 4 5 5 6 1
Ethics in government * * * * * * * 1
Homeland/domestic security/public
safety X X X X X X X 8
Environment 1 1 1 3 2 3 3 1
Crime/violence 36 21 16 19 13 8 10 1
Foreign policy (non-specific) 4 2 3 3 5 4 3 2
Military/defense 2 1 1 2 2 2 4 4
Abortion 3 3 4 2 2 2 6 1
Welfare 7 16 13 14 8 4 2 1
Judicial/Legal Issues X X X X X X X X
Drugs 6 3 4 8 6 2 5 2
Honesty/Integrity/Moral Values X X X X X X X X
Inflation X X X X X X X X
Same sex marriage/rights X X X X X X X X
Peace/world peace/nuclear arms 1 1 3 1 3 3 1 2
Homelessness - - 3 4 4 3 3 2
Medical research X X X X X X X X
School safety X X X X X X X X
Religion (decline of) * 1 * * 1 * 1 2
Anthrax/Biological attack - - - - - - - 1
Downsizing government X X X X X X 1 *
CIA leak x x x x x x x x
FEMA x x x x x x x x
Bush/president x x x x x x x x
Middle East peace process between
Palestinians and Israel X X X X X X X 2
Human/civil/women's rights 1 1 2 2 1 * 1 1
Family values (decline of) * 2 2 2 1 2 1 *
Election/Voter reform X X X X X X X X
Other1 8 7 7 8 19 2 19 3
Not sure/refused/no issue 8 7 7 9 12 16 18 11
* = Less than 0.5%.
X = Not mentioned as specific issue.
1 Including government/politics (nonspecific), housing, gun
control, issues involving children, corporate scandals/fraud,
and programs for the elderly (not Medicare/Social Security)
TABLE 12
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES FOR GOVERNMENT TO ADDRESS
(Spontaneous, Unprompted Replies)
"What do you think are the two most important issues for the government to
address?"
Base: All Adults
'02 '03 '04 '04 '05 '05 '05 '05
Dec Jun Feb Oct Feb Jun Aug Nov
% % % % % % % %
(The) war 18 8 13 35 30 24 41 34
The economy (non-specific) 34 25 31 28 11 18 19 13
Iraq / (Saddam Hussein) 11 3 6 9 11 7 6 13
Healthcare (not Medicare) 10 14 16 18 14 10 11 11
Education 11 13 11 7 7 7 8 10
Taxes 5 11 5 8 5 5 5 9
Gas and oil prices X 1 * 1 1 6 10 8
Federal budget surplus/deficit 1 4 5 2 10 4 2 7
Terrorism 17 11 4 7 4 6 7 6
Immigration 1 2 1 2 2 4 3 6
(Programs for) the poor/ poverty 2 3 2 * 2 3 4 5
Social security 2 4 2 4 37 19 10 4
Employment/jobs 8 8 16 10 6 5 3 4
Disaster relief/Hurricane Relief x x x x x x x 4
Energy X 1 * 1 1 1 4 3
National security 3 6 4 5 4 3 2 3
Domestic/social issues (non-
specific) 2 1 4 2 2 3 2 3
Medicare 1 4 2 3 3 2 2 3
Ethics in government 1 1 1 1 * 1 1 3
Homeland/domestic security/public
safety 9 3 8 6 3 3 2 2
Environment 3 2 4 1 1 2 3 2
Crime/violence 2 3 3 1 * 2 3 2
Foreign policy (non-specific) 4 2 6 3 3 2 2 2
Military/defense 1 5 5 3 3 2 1 2
Abortion 1 1 3 4 2 4 2 1
Welfare 1 3 2 * 1 1 3 1
Judicial/Legal Issues X X X * * * 2 1
Drugs 3 3 3 * * * 2 1
Honesty/Integrity/Moral Values X X X 2 1 * 2 1
Inflation X X X X X X 1 1
Same sex marriage/rights X X 1 1 1 * 1 1
Peace/world peace/nuclear arms 2 3 1 * 1 2 1 1
Homelessness 2 1 1 * 1 1 1 1
Medical research X 2 * 2 1 1 1 1
School safety X 2 * * - 1 1 1
Religion (decline of) 1 1 * 1 * 1 * 1
Anthrax/Biological attack 1 1 * X - 1 * 1
Downsizing government X X 1 1 * 1 * 1
CIA leak x x x x x x x 1
FEMA x x x x x x x 1
Bush/president x x x x x x x 1
Middle East peace process between
Palestinians and Israel 2 2 * * * * 1 *
Human/civil/women's rights 1 * * 1 1 1 1 *
Family values (decline of) * 1 2 1 - 1 1 *
Election/Voter reform 1 1 1 * X * 1 *
Other1 8 8 3 8 21 2 1 1
Not sure/refused/no issue 10 12 15 9 7 14 8 6
* = Less than 0.5%.
X = Not mentioned as specific issue.
1 Including government/politics (nonspecific), housing, gun
control, issues involving children, corporate scandals/fraud,
and programs for the elderly (not Medicare/Social Security)
Methodology
The Harris Poll(R) was conducted by telephone within the United States between November 8 and 13, 2005 among a nationwide cross section of 1,011 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. J25890b Q409, Q410, Q425, Q430 About Harris Interactive(R) Harris Interactive Inc. (http://www.harrisinteractive.com/ ), based in Rochester, New York, is the 13th largest and the fastest-growing market research firm in the world, most widely known for The Harris Poll(R) and for its pioneering leadership in the online market research industry. Long recognized by its clients for delivering insights that enable confident business decisions, the Company blends the science of innovative research with the art of strategic consulting to deliver knowledge that leads to measurable and enduring value. Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States, Europe (http://www.harrisinteractive.com/europe) and Asia offices, its wholly-owned subsidiary Novatris in Paris, France (http://www.novatris.com/ ), and through an independent global network of affiliate market research companies. EOE M/F/D/V To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to participate in future online surveys, go to http://www.harrispollonline.com/ . Nancy Wong Harris Interactive 585-214-7316 Kelly Gullo Harris Interactive 585-214-7172 Harris Interactive Inc. 11/05Website: http://www.harrisinteractive.com/ Website: http://www.novatris.com/ Website: http://www.harrispollonline.com/ |
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