January Job Vacancy Data Points Towards More Labor Market Slowing, The Conference Board Reports Today

NEW YORK, Jan. 30 /PRNewswire/ -- In January there were 3,362,500 online advertised vacancies, a largely seasonal decline of 5 percent from December, according to The Conference Board Help-Wanted OnLine Data Series(TM) released today. Over the year, online advertised vacancies were up 7 percent for the nation as a whole. There were 2.2 advertised vacancies online for every 100 persons in the labor force in January.

"Job seekers may have to pound the pavement a bit harder to find the right job," said Gad Levanon, Economist at The Conference Board. "These data suggest that the slow pace of labor demand will continue in the months ahead and may even slow further." The monthly decline in January from the December level was in line with the seasonal dip expected during the holiday season. But the real story is the slow 7 percent increase, January '07 - January '08, which follows a 6 percent increase in December which was the smallest annual increase since this series began in May 2005.

THE NATIONAL -- REGIONAL PICTURE

In January, 2,223,100 of the 3,362,500 unduplicated online advertised vacancies were new ads that did not appear in December, while the remainders are reposted ads from the previous month. The 5 percent decrease in total ads in January was caused primarily by a 3.7 percent decrease in new ads. Despite these declines, over-the-year (January '07 - January '08) total ads and new ads rose 7 percent and 11.8 percent, respectively.

The national decline in advertised vacancies between December '07 and January '08 reflected a lower volume of ads in all nine Census regions. All of the regions saw a decline but they were smaller than those from last month (between 1 and 9 percent). Over-the-year (January '07 - January '08), seven of the nine regions continued to show a gain in labor demand. Two exceptions to this were again New England and the Pacific region which declined by 2 and 10 percent, respectively.

The January figures reported in the Help-Wanted OnLine Data Series(TM) reflect the sum of the number of unduplicated online job ads for each day from mid-December to mid-January. This new series, which includes data from April 2005, does not have sufficient history to allow for seasonally adjusted monthly data.

    STATE HIGHLIGHTS
    -- Alaska posts the highest ads rate in the country for the fifth month in
       a row
    -- Delaware leads the nation again with the lowest supply/demand rate

Alaska posted 4.22 vacancies for every 100 persons in the state labor force, the highest rate in the nation, for the fifth month in a row. Nevada (3.88) and Delaware (3.76) were close behind in the number of advertised vacancies when adjusted for the size of the state labor force. Fully half of the top 10 states with the largest number of ads relative to their labor force are on the East Coast and include Delaware (3.76), Maryland (3.61), Massachusetts (3.58), Connecticut (3.18) and New Jersey (3.16).

Online advertised vacancies in California, the state with the largest labor force in the nation, totaled 451,200 in January. The volume of online advertised vacancies in California was significantly above the next highest states, Texas (303,000), New York (244,000) and Florida (207,400).

"Although one cannot infer that the occupation or geographic location of unemployed persons matches the occupation or geographic location of the vacancies, looking at the number of unemployed in relation to the number of advertised vacancies provides an indication of available job opportunities for the unemployed," said Levanon. Using the latest unemployment data available from the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and computing the supply/demand ratio (unemployed/advertised vacancies), the states with the most favorable (e.g., lowest) supply/demand rates included Delaware (0.89), Utah (0.95), Maryland (0.96), and Virginia (0.99). These were the only four states where the supply/demand rate was less than 1.0, indicating that the number of unemployed workers was fewer than the number of online job ads. For the nation as a whole the comparable supply/demand rate for December was 2.1, indicating that the number of unemployed persons exceeded the number of online advertised vacancies.

States where the number of unemployed persons looking for work significantly exceeded the number of online advertised vacancies included Mississippi (5.64) and Michigan (4.99), Arkansas (3.50), Kentucky (3.36) and South Carolina (3.19). These are the highest levels seen since July 2007.

    OCCUPATIONAL FOCUS
    -- More than 274,300 ads were posted for healthcare practitioners and
       technical occupations in January.
    -- New York and New Jersey are the states with the highest percent of ads
       in Management and Business/Financial occupations.

"Many jobs in high demand are also, on average, among the highest paying occupations," said Levanon. Healthcare practitioners and technical workers (274,300) and management positions (232,300) continue to be the top occupations with a significant number of ads posted online. According to the latest federal hourly wage data, wages average above $44 an hour for management positions and about $30 an hour for healthcare practitioners and technicians. Also in high demand are computer and quantitative skills related occupations (188,300), business and financial occupations (202,500), and office and administrative support (200,700).

    METRO AREA HIGHLIGHTS
    -- Salt Lake City has the lowest supply/demand ratio in the nation.
    -- Austin leads the nation with the highest local ads rate.

The top metro areas in January as measured by most advertised vacancies per 100 persons in the local labor force included Austin (5.13) Milwaukee (5.05), Washington, DC (4.47) and San Jose (4.38). The number of unemployed persons looking for work was fewer than the number of advertised vacancies in 11 of the 52 metro areas for which data are reported separately. Cities across the nation where the number of advertised vacancies are plentiful in relation to the number of unemployed included Salt Lake City, Washington, D.C., Austin, Milwaukee, and Boston.

Two of the nation's largest metropolitan areas, New York and Los Angeles, were first and second in the absolute volume of advertised job vacancies in December, with 254,770 and 157,300, respectively.

PROGRAM NOTES

The Conference Board Help-Wanted Online Data Series(TM) measures the number of new, first-time online jobs and jobs reposted from the previous month on more than 1,200 major Internet job boards and smaller job boards that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas.

Like The Conference Board's long running Help-Wanted Advertising Index of print ads (which has been published since 1951), the new online series is not a direct measure of job vacancies. The level of ads in both print and online may change for reasons not related to overall job demand.

The Conference Board, as a standard practice with new data series, considers the estimates in The Conference Board Help-Wanted OnLine Data Series(TM) to be developmental. As a not-for-profit business research organization, The Conference Board is publishing the early years of this series for use by the media, analysts, researchers and the business community. Persons using this data are urged to review the information on the database and methodology available on our website and contact the economists listed at the top of this release with questions and comments.

Background information and technical notes on this new series are available at: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/helpwantedOnline.cfm. The underlying data for this series is provided by Wanted Technologies Corporation.

Additional information on the Bureau of Labor Statistics data used in this release can be found on the BLS website, www.bls.gov.

The Conference Board

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WANTED Technologies Corporation.

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