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As the State of the Union Draws Near, Two-Thirds of U.S. Adults Rate Current State of the Country as Poor, According to Latest Harris PollMajorities believe the war in Iraq is not going well and is damaging to the president
ROCHESTER, N.Y., Jan. 26 /PRNewswire/ -- As President Bush prepares to address the country with the State of the Union, only one-third (32%) of U.S. adults believe the current state of the country is good, while 68 percent believe it is poor. Interestingly, men are more likely to have a favorable perspective, with 39 percent of men believing the current state of the country is good, compared to only 27 percent of women. These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 1,518 U.S. adults surveyed online between January 12 and 17, 2006 by Harris Interactive(R). People's general dissatisfaction related to a number of issues may account for the current levels of dissatisfaction with the state of the country. Eight in ten (80%) adults believe the efforts to strengthen Social Security, make prescription drugs affordable (77%) and make taxes fairer (76%) have been poor. Majorities also feel the war in Iraq (68%), the war or terrorism (56%) and the efforts to rebuild the Gulf Coast (64%) and strengthen the economy (62%) are going poorly. Not surprisingly, there differences according to party ID on the state of the country as well as on these issues. Over two-thirds (69%) of Republicans rate the current state of the country as good, compared to 23 percent of Independents and just nine percent of Democrats. Over three-quarters (77%) of Republicans believe the war on terrorism is going well, and 63 percent feel the war in Iraq is going well. Compare that to only 18 percent of Democrats who think the war on terrorism is going well and seven percent who believe the war in Iraq is going well. The parties' opinions are closer to consensus on the strengthening of Social Security, with minorities of Republicans (29%), Democrats (9%) and Independents (9%) feeling efforts related to this issue are going well. There is also a generational difference in how adults think things are going in the country. Matures (those aged 65 and over), and Generation Xers (those aged 28 to 39) are more likely to think the war on terrorism is going well (48% and 47%, respectively), as compared to 37 percent of Baby Boomers (those aged 40 to 58) and 36 percent of Echo Boomers (those aged 18 to 27). The younger generations are more likely to think the rebuilding of the Gulf Coast is going well [Gen Xers (34%) and Echo Boomers (36%)], compared to Matures (29%) and Baby Boomers (24%). Issues people want the president to emphasize in his State of the Union address The survey also asked what two issues are the most important for President Bush to emphasize in his State of the Union speech. Half (51%) of adults think it's most important to emphasize the strengthening of the economy, while just under a third want to hear him emphasize the war in Iraq (32%) and the war on terrorism (30%). Roughly one-quarter would like the president to emphasize making taxes fairer (27%) and the strengthening of Social Security (22%), while almost one in five would like to hear him emphasize the rebuilding of the Gulf Coast (18%) and prescription drug affordability (18%). Surprisingly, there are no differences by Party ID on these issues, with the exception of the war on terrorism (47% of Republicans think it's an issue that is most important to emphasize compared to 16% of Democrats). In relation to opinion by age, Echo Boomers (52%) are much more likely than Gen Xers (22%), Baby Boomers (31%) or Matures (30%) to want to hear the president emphasize the war in Iraq. Potentially Damaging Events The State of the Union is a chance to not only look forward, but to also reflect on the past year. Adults were asked their opinions of how damaging some of the events in 2005 were to President Bush and his administration, and more than three in five adults (63%) feel the war in Iraq was damaging. Majorities also believe the responses to Katrina and Rita (57%) and the recent wiretapping revelations (53%) were damaging. Substantial numbers, albeit not majorities, think the indictment of Congressman Tom DeLay (42%), the indictment of Lewis "Scooter" Libby (40%) and the investigation of Karl Rove (40%) were all damaging. Interestingly, Baby Boomers are more likely than other generations in every instance to believe that these items are damaging to the president and his administration. State of the Union Viewership Finally, the White House may have to promote the State of the Union address as only one-third (33%) of adults say they will watch this year. Slightly more than one-third (37%) say they may watch, while 30 percent say they won't. Even among Republicans, less than half (47%) say they are going to watch. TABLE 1 CURRENT STATE OF THE UNION "At the end of the month, President Bush will give his State of the Union to the American people. How would you rate the current state of the country?"
Base: All adults
Gender Party ID
Total Men Women Republican Democrat Independent
n=1,518 n=657 n=861 n=519 n=474 n=411
% % % % % %
Good (NET) 32 39 27 69 9 23
Excellent 5 8 2 11 2 3
Good 28 31 24 58 7 20
Poor (NET) 68 61 73 31 91 77
Fair 39 35 42 27 44 45
Poor 29 26 31 4 47 31
TABLE 2
HOW WELL THINGS ARE GOING IN THE COUNTRY
"How would you rate how well the following items are going in the country?" Base: All adults
Pretty Only Not Excellent/ Only fair/
Excellent Good Fair Poor Sure Pretty Good Poor
(NET) (NET)
The war on
terrorism % 11 30 29 27 2 41 56
Strengthening
the economy % 9 27 33 29 2 35 62
The war in
Iraq % 6 24 25 43 2 30 68
Rebuilding
the Gulf
Coast % 4 25 34 30 7 29 64
Making
taxes
fairer % 3 17 31 46 4 20 76
Making
prescription
drugs
affordable % 2 16 33 44 5 18 77
Strengthening
Social
Security % 1 13 30 50 5 15 80
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 3
HOW WELL THINGS ARE GOING IN THE COUNTRY
"How would you rate how well the following items are going in the country?" Percent saying Excellent/Pretty Good
Base: All adults
Gender Party ID
Total Male Female Republican Democrat Independent
n=1,518 n=657 n=861 n=519 n=474 n=411
% % % % % %
The war on terrorism 41 48 36 77 18 34
Strengthening
the economy 35 44 28 67 13 31
The war in Iraq 30 40 22 63 7 24
Rebuilding the
Gulf Coast 29 32 26 49 16 24
Making taxes fairer 20 24 17 41 9 13
Making prescription
drugs affordable 18 21 16 33 12 12
Strengthening
Social Security 15 16 14 29 9 9
Generation
Echo Gen X Baby Matures
Boomers (28-39) Boomers (65+)
(18-27) (40-58)
n=148 n=216 n=605 n=549
% % % %
The war on terrorism 36 47 37 48
Strengthening
the economy 28 34 33 45
The war in
Iraq 20 34 27 37
Rebuilding the
Gulf Coast 36 34 24 29
Making taxes fairer 25 27 16 19
Making prescription
drugs affordable 18 21 13 24
Strengthening
Social Security 17 14 12 19
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 4
MOST IMPORTANT ITEMS FOR PRESIDENT TO EMPHASIZE IN STATE OF THE UNION "Which two do you think are the most important for President Bush to emphasize in the State of the Union address?"
Base: All adults
Party ID
Total Republican Democrat Independent
n=1,518 n=519 n=474 n=411
% % % %
Strengthening the economy 51 53 48 52
The war in Iraq 32 31 37 30
The war on terrorism 30 47 16 28
Making taxes fairer 27 24 26 29
Strengthening Social
Security 22 17 24 23
Rebuilding the Gulf Coast 18 14 22 17
Making prescription
drugs affordable 18 12 24 17
Generation
Echo Gen X Baby Matures
Boomers (28-39) Boomers (65+)
(18-27) (40-58)
n=148 n=216 n=605 n=549
% % % %
Strengthening the economy 52 55 51 45
The war in Iraq 52 22 31 30
The war on terrorism 23 34 27 36
Making taxes fairer 19 27 28 27
Strengthening Social
Security 17 18 21 28
Rebuilding the Gulf Coast 26 21 18 12
Making prescription
drugs affordable 6 17 21 19
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 5
DAMAGING EVENTS FOR THE PRESIDENT AND HIS ADMINISTRATION "How damaging do you think each of these issues were to the president and his administration in 2005?"
Base: All adults
Very Damaging Somewhat Not at all Not Familiar
Damaging Damaging Damaging with this issue
The war
in Iraq % 37 26 25 11 2
The responses
to Hurricanes
Katrina
and Rita % 34 23 28 13 2
The recent
revelation
that the
president
authorized
the National
Security
Agency to
bypass courts
to eavesdrop
on US citizens % 30 23 25 19 4
The indictment
of Congressman
Tom Delay % 19 22 29 17 12
The leaks of
Valerie Plame's
name and the
indictment of
Lewis
"Scooter"
Libby % 17 24 26 16 17
The
investigation
into Deputy
Chief of
Staff
Karl Rove % 14 26 31 14 16
Very Damaging/ Somewhat/
Damaging Not at all damaging
(NET) (NET)
The war
in Iraq % 63 35
The responses
to Hurricanes
Katrina
and Rita % 57 41
The recent
revelation
that the
president
authorized
the National
Security
Agency to
bypass courts
to eavesdrop
on US citizens % 53 43
The indictment
of Congressman
Tom Delay % 42 47
The leaks of
Valerie Plame's
name and the
indictment of
Lewis
"Scooter"
Libby % 40 42
The
investigation
into Deputy
Chief of
Staff
Karl Rove % 40 44
TABLE 6
DAMAGING EVENTS FOR THE PRESIDENT AND HIS ADMINISTRATION "How damaging do you think each of these issues were to the president and his administration in 2005?"
Percent saying Very Damaging or Damaging
Base: All adults
Generation
Total Echo Gen Xers Baby Matures
Boomers (28-39) Boomers (65+)
(18-27) (40-58)
n=1,518 n=148 n=216 n=605 n=549
% % % % %
The war in Iraq 63 69 62 66 57
The responses to
Hurricanes
Katrina and Rita 57 61 57 60 50
The recent
revelation
that the
president
authorized
the National
Security
Agency to bypass
courts to
eavesdrop on
U.S. citizens 53 58 52 57 44
The indictment of
Congressman
Tom Delay 42 33 33 47 43
The leaks of
Valerie Plame's
name and the
indictment of Lewis
"Scooter"
Libby 40 39 33 45 40
The investigation
into Deputy
Chief of Staff
Karl Rove 40 39 31 42 44
TABLE 7
STATE OF THE UNION VIEWERSHIP
"Will you be watching the State of the Union address this year?"
Base: All adults
Party ID
Total Republican Democrat Independent
n=1,518 n=519 n=474 n=411
% % % %
Yes 33 47 24 31
Maybe 37 37 38 36
No 30 16 38 32
Methodology
The Harris Poll(R) was conducted online within the United States between January 12 and 17, 2006 among 1,518 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online. In theory, with probability samples of this size, one could say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results have a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Sampling error for the various sub-samples listed in the tables above is higher and varies. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, and weighting. It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. This online sample was not a probability sample. These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. J W26567 Q 650, 655, 670, 675, 680 About Harris Interactive(R) Harris Interactive Inc. (http://www.harrisinteractive.com/), based in Rochester, New York, is the 13th largest and the fastest-growing market research firm in the world, most widely known for The Harris Poll(R) and for its pioneering leadership in the online market research industry. Long recognized by its clients for delivering insights that enable confident business decisions, the Company blends the science of innovative research with the art of strategic consulting to deliver knowledge that leads to measurable and enduring value. Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States, Europe (http://www.harrisinteractive.com/europe) and Asia offices, its wholly-owned subsidiary Novatris in Paris, France (http://www.novatris.com/), and through an independent global network of affiliate market research companies. EOE M/F/D/V To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to participate in future online surveys, go to http://www.harrispollonline.com/. Press Contact: Jennifer Cummings Harris Interactive 585-214-7720 Harris Interactive Inc.Website: http://www.harrisinteractive.com/ |
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